SWOD48
SPC AC 230838
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010
VALID 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE AN UPPER LOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED ACROSS MO ON SUN/D4 WITH STRONG NLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL EXIST S OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL GENERALLY LIE FROM TN SWWD INTO MS AND LA. WHILE
A MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE S OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE IS ALREADY
MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR ON D4. THUS...PREDICTABILITY IS ALREADY TOO LOW FOR ANY
SEVERE AREAS. PREDICTABILITY DETERIORATES FURTHER WITH TIME...AS THE
GFS AND MREF MEAN BOTH RETROGRADE THE LOW D5-D7 INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS A STRONG UPPER VORT LOBE NEWD IN A
NEGATIVE TILT FASHION ACROSS AL/GA AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS ON
D5. ALTHOUGH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY
COLOCATE AT SOME POINT...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR ANY SEVERE
RISK AREAS.
..JEWELL.. 09/23/2010
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