SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070838
TXZ000-071015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN TX
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 645...
VALID 070838Z - 071015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 645 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 645 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BEFORE
10Z VALID THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FARTHER NORTHEAST TO INCLUDE PARTS OF SERN TX.
AS OF 08Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS OVER S TX NORTH
OF BROWNSVILLE AND IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL
NWD DIRECTION THIS MORNING. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC FOR
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE TX COAST SEWD
INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH WWD EXTENT
ONSHORE. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN MOST ACTIVE WITHIN A BAND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND PALACIOS EXTENDING INTO THE
WRN GULF. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH 0-1 KM
HELICITY FROM 200-400 M2/S2. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR HAS BEEN TIME
OF DAY WITH LACK OF INSOLATION LIMITING INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
LOWEST 2 KM. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS ROTATING OFFSHORE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MORE INLAND WHERE CAPE IS MORE LIMITED.
HOWEVER...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS MAY
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS DIABATIC WARMING INCREASES. THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN TX AS THE CENTER
CONTINUES NWD.
..DIAL.. 09/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 27189759 27909813 29179728 29709581 29129529 28459579
27389639 27189759
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