SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090252
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090445-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 PM CDT WED SEP 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX...SWRN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 648...
VALID 090252Z - 090445Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 648 CONTINUES.
SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE IS NOW
OVER SRN GRADY COUNTY OK. TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF INTEREST REMAIN. THE
FIRST IS OVER N TX AND INTO SRN OK...ALONG AN ORGANIZED CONFLUENCE
BAND FEEDING NWD INTO THE LOW. A FEW CELLS HAVE PRODUCED BURSTS OF
LIGHTNING...INDICATIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS. A MODIFIED 00Z FWD
SOUNDING STILL SHOWS MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 75. FURTHER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
FARTHER E INTO AR...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS PERSIST ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF THE EARLIER BAND WHICH HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS IT
MOVED INTO WRN AR WHERE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXIST. HOWEVER...SURFACE
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW RELATIVELY WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S OVER S CNTRL AR...FROM CLARK/DALLAS COUNTIES SWD. DQU
PROFILER INDICATES WIND PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS AND TORNADOES...BUT OVERALL SHEAR DECREASES TO THE E.
THUS...EXPECT A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT ON ERN FRINGES OF WW 648.
..JEWELL.. 09/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31739640 31739764 33329739 34029709 34469704 34759710
34919734 35129718 35339611 35469487 35399453 34309323
33689298 33459344 33429441 33049532 32949567 32689599
31739640
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