SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091947
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-092015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1805
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...SWRN ND...WRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON
VALID 091947Z - 092015Z
STRONG SFC HEATING ACROSS NERN WY INTO SERN MT/WRN SD HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES - SFC-3KM VALUES NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN VIS IMAGERY WHERE SCATTERED
HIGH BASED CU ARE INTENSIFYING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME IN PROXIMITY TO HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE. IN FACT LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CARTER CO MT...SEWD INTO HARDING CO SD. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS OVERSPREADING CNTRL MT/NWRN WY AND
WILL SOON AID AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING CONVECTION. SHEAR PROFILES
CERTAINLY FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD
BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
GREATEST SEVERE THREATS...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE AS
UPDRAFTS LOWER WITHIN MOIST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
..DARROW.. 09/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
LAT...LON 47830475 47130209 45230128 43630136 43690302 45220355
46470547 47830475
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