SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092005
ARZ000-092100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT THU SEP 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092005Z - 092100Z
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A WEAK TORNADO WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF N
CNTRL AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SFC SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN
AR...ATTENDANT TO A WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER RESIDING TO THE N OF
THE WARM FRONT HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S...WHILE S OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER
90S BENEATH AMPLE SUNSHINE. AS A RESULT...A RATHER STRONG
INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE. SFC-BASED
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS ACROSS WRN
AR...WITH NELY STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE LOCATED IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND
TO THE N/E OF THE FRONT...WITH A 0-1 KM SRH MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER
SRN MO. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A WEAK TORNADO MAY EXIST NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE A NARROW ZONE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS JUXTAPOSED
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW/ISOLATED
TO WARRANT A WW.
..ROGERS.. 09/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 35369252 35629334 35809354 36179353 36239311 36149263
35729144 35489130 35149164 35369252
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