SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102220
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-102345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN/ERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 102220Z - 102345Z
INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS FROM E CNTRL KS INTO FAR NRN OK. ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BISECTING THE STATE OF KS FROM
SW TO NE. STRONG HEATING HAS ERODED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITHIN THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH HIGH BASED CU FIELDS NOTED ACROSS SWRN KS AS
WELL AS OVER NWRN OK. E OF THE DRYLINE...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S. A MODIFIED 18Z LMN SOUNDING
YIELDS MUCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG AND WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTING CIN IS ESSENTIALLY GONE.
DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH AREA VWPS
AND PROFILERS SHOWING MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 35-50 KTS FROM
NWRN OK INTO CNTRL KS. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES ALONG THE WARM FROM ACROSS NERN KS INTO NWRN MO...A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET INTO EARLY EVENING COMBINED
WITH EXPECTED SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE SUGGEST ISOLATED TORNADOES
MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...ALTHOUGH WIND AND HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..JEWELL.. 09/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36259823 36919785 38059746 38599750 38949753 39189743
39639690 39679596 39499489 39329435 39069417 38379438
37099491 36759523 36399579 36329680 36259823
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