SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180600
IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-180700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...CNTRL/WRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671...
VALID 180600Z - 180700Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671
CONTINUES.
...LARGE HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE/LOW SVR PROBABILITIES DVLPG NEB-KS
BORDER...
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CONTINUE OVER CNTRL NEB ATOP A 1 KM FRONTAL
INVERSION WHERE MUCAPE RANGES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. 50-60 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER OF THE CLOUD-BEARING
HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL PRIMARILY. LEFT-MOVING MEMBERS WILL TRANSLATE NWD TO NEAR A
SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE ROUGHLY BURWELL NEB- CARROLL IA LINE.
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER...WILL FAVOR SRN/WRN PARTS OF THE STORM
CLUSTERS WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY APPROACHING
THE OMAHA AREA AFTER 07Z OR SO.
ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO
THE FRINGE OF THE FRONTAL INTERFACE ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER NEWD
INTO SCNTRL NEB. ALTHOUGH UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE AT THE ONSET...AS
THE FRONTAL SURFACE DEEPENS...THESE STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND NECESSITATE A WW FARTHER S WITH TIME AS
THREATS FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS INCREASE.
..RACY.. 09/18/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 41130006 42199800 42049409 41349355 40659597 40109840
39779990 41130006
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