SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210134
MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-210300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1868
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT MON SEP 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...N-CNTRL AND SWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 210134Z - 210300Z
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AND SLIGHTLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER
ERN SD AND N-CNTRL NEB...AS WELL AS WARM SECTOR CONVECTION OVER SWRN
NEB...WILL POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TOO
LIMITED TO SUPPORT A WW.
AT 01Z...AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NERN
SD...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO N-CNTRL NEB...AND A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE TYPE FEATURE EXTENDING SWD FROM THE COLD FRONT INTO
SWRN NEB. STRONG FRONTAL FORCING OVER THE N-CNTRL NEB PORTION OF THE
COLD FRONT IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF OCCASIONAL LINE
SEGMENTS...WHICH ARE QUICKLY OVERTAKEN BY THE FRONT...BECOMING
ELEVATED ABOVE THE MORE STABLE POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS.
OTHER DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS...WHICH FORMED DURING PEAK HEATING IN
THE MIDST OF A STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ARE MOVING
E-NEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB. MODIFIED 00Z LBF RAOB AND RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SWRN NEB ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS A
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL...FAVORABLE FOR
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR A DAMAGING WIND GUST. FARTHER N OVER
N-CNTRL NEB AND PORTIONS OF ERN SD...MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS FORMING
ALONG/SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT MAY HAVE A BRIEF
WINDOW OF SVR POTENTIAL /MAINLY LARGE HAIL/ DURING THE INCIPIENT
STAGES OF FORMATION/INTENSIFICATION...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
..GARNER.. 09/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...
BOU...
LAT...LON 42749715 40689940 40050086 40300197 41550223 42950064
44289877 45149746 44899626 42749715
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