SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211012
MIZ000-WIZ000-211045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 AM CDT TUE SEP 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN UPR MI NCNTRL WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675...
VALID 211012Z - 211045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675
CONTINUES.
FLARE-UP OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE MSP METRO AREA INTO WCNTRL
WI WAS LIKELY THE RESULT OF NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY BEING RELEASED
AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BECAME ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE. SINCE THEN...INTENSITY OF THE STORMS HAS LARGELY
DECREASED AS PRIMARY FORCING BEGINS TO ACCELERATE BEYOND THE MORE
FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ INSTABILITY.
THERE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NERN WI AND UPPER MI THROUGH 12Z. HERE...SMALL SCALE
LINE SEGMENTS HAVE EVOLVED DOWNSTREAM OF THE STRONGEST PVA AND GIVEN
40-50 KTS OF 1-2 KM WSW FLOW...SOME CONVECTIVE GUSTS WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE /NOTE M60 MPH GUST AT FREDA MI AT 0545
EDT/. AN ADDITIONAL WW DOWNSTREAM IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
OVERALL ISOLATED NATURE TO THREATS.
..RACY.. 09/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...
LAT...LON 46108969 46618946 46798913 46488879 46118876 45808897
45638936 45618957 46108969
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