SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221348
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-221515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1880
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB INTO SOUTHWEST
MN/NORTHWEST IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 221348Z - 221515Z
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS /MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL/ WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SUCH THAT A WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A RELATIVELY STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
/REFERENCE 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA/...SOME
TSTMS HAVE SHOWN INCREASED VIGOR OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL SD AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEB. THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO
BE AIDED BY A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...OWING TO A SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE LAPSE RATE/MUCAPE
ENVIRONMENT ON THE EDGE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CAP.
..GUYER.. 09/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43540050 44309960 44469695 43249592 41709748 41809984
42780029 43540050
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