MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1895

ACUS11 KWNS 251803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251802
KSZ000-OKZ000-252000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH S-CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251802Z - 252000Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH CNTRL AND S-CNTRL KS
BY 20-21Z AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN OK BY EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD THROUGH
N-CNTRL AND WRN KS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TROUGH INDICATED
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL AND SWRN KS. AXIS OF MID 60S
DEWPOINTS HAS ADVECTED NEWD THROUGH WRN OK AND CNTRL KS WHICH ALONG
WITH DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80F. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LINE OF CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM SWRN
THROUGH CNTRL KS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SSEWD THROUGH NEB INTO
NRN KS WILL LIKELY AUGMENT FRONTAL SURGE ACROSS KS. STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON. BULK SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION AS WELL AS A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 09/25/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 37390026 38269879 38899702 38209630 36899763 36349949
37390026

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