MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1896

ACUS11 KWNS 252248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252248
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NWRN OK INCLUDING PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685...

VALID 252248Z - 252345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 685
CONTINUES.

GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NWRN OK INTO
NERN TX PANHANDLE...WHILE TRENDS SUGGEST THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE ERN EXTENT OF WW 685.

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SWWD ALONG
THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT INTO A REGION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/STRONGER SURFACE HEATING. AT 2245Z...THE MOST VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS WERE MOVING SWD THROUGH NWRN OK /HARPER AND WOODS INTO
WOODWARD/ELLIS COUNTIES/...WITH DISCRETE STORMS FORMING OVER THE
NERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING THROUGH A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
INDICATING A WEAKENING TREND IN THE INSTABILITY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO BOTH THE STORMS OVERTURNING THE AIR MASS AND ANVIL LEVEL CLOUDS
SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN OK...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY COOLER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/ DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WITH SWD EXTENT.
THUS...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS MAY BE AT THEIR MAX AT THE
PRESENT TIME. A WEAKENING TREND IN STORM INTENSITY FOR THE OK
STORMS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SWD INTO WEST CENTRAL OK
/S OF WW 685/ WHERE INSTABILITY IS MUCH LESS.

OTHERWISE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..PETERS.. 09/25/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35630003 35600217 36160216 36720018 36989892 37279817
37439802 37839687 38319616 37999548 37029657 36439805
35630003

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