SWODY1
SPC AC 011610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN MA THRU MID
AFTERNOON...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS STRONG TROUGH DEEPENS SEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES...THE PREVIOUS
UPPER LOW OVER SERN U.S. IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING NEWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY VICINITY LONG
ISLAND TRACKING QUICKLY NNEWD TO ALONG ME COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAK UPPER LOW OFF SRN CA COAST WILL DRIFT A LITTLE W TODAY AS RIDGE
REMAINS OVER INTERIOR W.
...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO THE SHRINKING
WARM SECTOR OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER GIVEN THE STRONG
KINEMATICS THE COMBINATION OF 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET AND FORCED LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. SOME CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S SE MA RAISING MLCAPES TO
AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER THREAT
OF WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORCED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BY MID AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE WAVE MOVES TO OFF THE SRN ME COAST THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
SWEEP OFFSHORE MA ENDING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. HAVE INCREASED THE
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE TO SLIGHT RISK OVER SERN MA THRU MID
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY.
...SRN HI PLNS...
NWLY MID LVL FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED ALONG NERN EDGE OF GRT BASIN UPR
RIDGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A CORRIDOR OF 30-40 KT DEEP NWLY SHEAR
OVER NE NM...SE CO...AND THE TX PANHANDLE. ESE ADVECTION OF EML
ABOVE MODIFIED CP AIR OVER THE PLNS WILL YIELD MARGINAL INSTABILITY
BY AFTN. A FEW STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CO/NM AND SPREAD E/SE INTO THE HI PLNS WHERE INVERTED-V BOUNDARY
LAYER ENVIRONMENT COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD DOWNBURSTS.
OVERALL...HOWEVER...STORMS PROBABLY WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM/SURVIVE
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLNS...WHERE CINH LIKELY WILL BE STRONGER.
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AND THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING.
...INTERIOR SRN CA...
HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW PROB OF STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR SOME CAPE AND SUBSTANTIAL
DCAPE TO DEVELOP.
..HALES/SMITH.. 10/01/2010
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