SWODY1
SPC AC 090508
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN PLAYER IN CONUS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE...NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OVER CENTRAL/ERN WY. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...PERTURBATION IS FCST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EWD THEN SEWD OUT OF HIGH-PLAINS/ROCKIES LONGWAVE RIDGE
POSITION. STG CONSENSUS OF SREF/OPERATIONAL PROGS REASONABLY
INDICATES 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REACH CENTRAL NEB BY
10/12Z.
AT SFC...LOW NOW ANALYZED OVER N-CENTRAL SD IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
ERRATICALLY INVOF NRN SD AND SRN ND THROUGH 10/00Z...WHILE WEAKENING
AS CIRCULATION ALOFT PASSES TO ITS SW AND S. EARLY IN
PERIOD...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW SEWD ACROSS
ERN NEB...THEN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND NERN NM. AS SYSTEM
OCCLUDES IN LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
EWD/SEWD TO WRN IA...SRN KS...NWRN OK AND TX PANHANDLE BY END OF
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED OVER ERN SD AND SRN
MN -- SHOULD DRIFT NWD ACROSS WRN MN AND NERN SD...LOCATED NEAR
BIS-EAU LINE BY 10/00Z BEFORE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY.
...CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...
COLD-CORE REGION OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE IS FCST TO PASS ACROSS
PORTIONS NEB/DAKOTAS DURING TEMPORAL WINDOW OF PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING AT SFC. RESULTING ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...AND RESIDUAL/MRGL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...SHOULD
LEAD TO MINIMIZED CINH AND MLCAPE COMMONLY IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE
DURING MIDDAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INVOF SFC LOW ALSO WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR EACH ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...LIMITING POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF SVR RISK.
HOWEVER...A FEW RELATIVELY INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE SVR HAIL FOR
BRIEF INTERVALS.
RELATIVE MAX CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND BY EXTENSION
MLCAPE...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY INVOF WARM-FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST. THIS REPRESENTS TEMPORAL EXTENSION AND NEWD
SPATIAL SHIFT OF SIMILAR MAXIMA ANALYZED ON 09/00Z SFC AND UPPER AIR
CHARTS...JUXTAPOSED WITH ERN PORTION OF FAVORABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...PRIND DEVELOPMENT WILL BE STIFLED BY STG
CAPPING BENEATH WELL-DEVELOPED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.
..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 10/09/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment