SWODY1
SPC AC 051601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT TUE OCT 05 2010
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN U.S...
UPR LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER SCENTRAL CA AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL ACTUALLY RETROGRADE TO NEAR COAST BY TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS SWRN CANADA. VORT LOBE APPROACHING SRN CA THIS AM WILL ROTATE
NEWD AND THEN NWD BY TONIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW REDEVELOPS BACK TO
SCENTRAL CA COAST.
STRONG SLY FLOW OF MOIST AND ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL PERSIST
ACROSS AZ THRU THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING AND LOW LEVEL
COOLING ON THE TUS 12Z SOUNDING IMPLIES THAT THE FOCUS FOR AZ TODAY
SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD HEAVY RAIN THAN SEVERE. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LESS THAN 7C/KM AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT OVERALL
WEAKER UPDRAFTS IN TODAY CONVECTION.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHILE SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD
LESSEN EARLIER CONCERN FOR SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE THREAT. THERE IS
STILL POTENTIAL WHERE SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON HEATING CAN OCCUR OVER
DESERTS VALLEYS FOR ISOLATED STRONG...MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..HALES/SMITH.. 10/05/2010
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