SWODY1
SPC AC 130448
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CONFIRMS THE CONTINUED TRANSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS
UPSTREAM NWLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF BUILDING RIDGE ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INLAND ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS AND A
SHARP TROUGH TAKES SHAPE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...
MIDWEST... AND SOUTH. THIS NEW TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO
SUBSTANTIAL EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEFORE
THAT OCCURS...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY LATER TODAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND OH VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
...MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY...
WHILE STRONGEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT ATOP THE
ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE WILL COINCIDE WITH WEAK TO MODEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS. GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY BECOMING
MARGINALLY ORGANIZED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND NEAR A WEAK SURFACE
LOW FORECAST OVER IND/OH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THESE
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY
THREAT OF HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
A LINEAR MCS/SQUALL LINE MAY TAKE FORM OUT OF THE LATE AFTERNOON
STORMS NEAR THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION COULD PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF OH/KY/WV INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND THE COLD FRONT SHARPENS AND ACCELERATES
EAST TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. WEAK AMBIENT INSTABILITY MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS
THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 10/13/2010
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