SWODY1
SPC AC 131948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z UPDATE...
...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE LOWERING TO NEAR NEGLIGIBLE
LEVELS. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...NOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST INTO NORTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...REMAINS WEAK. AND MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE
INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING EAST
OF COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ORGRAPHICALLY AIDED ACTIVITY NEAR THE
APPALACHIANS...PRIMARY ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE...NOW ADVANCING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN EDGE OF OUTLOOK AREA. A TRANSITION
TOWARD MOSTLY THE WARM SECTOR SIDE OF THE FRONT NOW APPEARS
UNDERWAY...WITH STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENHANCING ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN/SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN/SOUTHERN OHIO AND KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL...AND
MAY CONTINUE TO DO SO...BUT SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION DOES
NOT APPEAR LIKELY...AS PRE-FRONTAL AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR
REMAIN WEAK IN THE PRESENCE OF ONLY WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY.
..KERR.. 10/13/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010/
DEEPENING TROUGH ERN U.S. NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM LOWER MI SSWWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
THE WARM SECTOR IS UNSUPPORTIVE FOR MORE THAN WEAK CONVECTION.
MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND RESULTANT
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND A GENERALLY WEAK
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD AND VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
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