SWODY1
SPC AC 210546
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
CNTRL NM...
...SRN PLAINS/SRN ROCKIES...
UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT TOWARD THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING
AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO WEST TX
AND SERN NM. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ENSURE A REGION OF FOCUSED LARGE
SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADS NM INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...PRIMARILY
WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WHERE 12HR HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
BE ON THE ORDER OF 60M. AS A RESULT...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT
EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z DEEP INTO CNTRL NM. ULTIMATELY...50S SFC DEW
POINTS WILL SURGE NWWD WITHIN UPSLOPE ZONE INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED
EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WHERE H5 TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL TO MINUS 14-16 BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING IT APPEARS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BE NOTED THROUGH THE PERIOD LIMITING SFC HEATING WITHIN ELY BOUNDARY
LAYER REGIME. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE STEEPEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY ULTIMATELY BE CONFINED TO SRN NM...ARCING SEWD
ACROSS FAR WEST TX INTO NRN MEXICO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
DRYLINE WILL BE SHARPEST ACROSS FAR WEST TX AS READINGS APPROACH
80F. IF TEMPERATURES ATTAIN THESE LEVELS SBCAPE VALUES COULD EASILY
EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF NM THEN DEVELOP SEWD WITHIN A MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TSTMS INTENSIFY ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
TRANS PECOS REGION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK
REGION...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS
CNTRL NM WHICH MAY LIMIT SEVERE WITHIN AN OTHERWISE MOIST REGIME.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GREATEST RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES IN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES
NEAR THE DRYLINE. MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND AN EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO OK
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO CNTRL TX
LATE.
...NERN U.S...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION WILL PROVE TOO WEAK TO WARRANT ANY
MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL AS MOST
PROFILES DEPICT LITTLE MORE THAN 200 J/KG MUCAPE.
..DARROW/STOPPKOTTE.. 10/21/2010
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