SWODY1
SPC AC 151549
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN AZ...
IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NWRN SONORA WILL MOVE LITTLE
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THUS AN ELY FLOW OF MODESTLY MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN AZ INTO SERN CA.
GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS SRN
AZ...AROUND 8C/KM...AREAS THAT CAN EXPERIENCE STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO A FEW VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MLCAPES EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...DCAPES COULD LOCALLY BE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG...SUPPORTING ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL
POTENTIAL IS VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES...THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN A LOW PROB OF WIND DAMAGE.
..HALES/HURLBUT.. 10/15/2010
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