SWODY1
SPC AC 021943
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2010
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT NEAR THE SOUTHERN CA COAST PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FEW CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK WITH CONTINUANCE
OF LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.
...NM...
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NM THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED GIVEN WEAK BUOYANCY/VERTICAL
SHEAR.
..GUYER.. 10/02/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT SAT OCT 02 2010/
...INTERIOR SRN CA...
ONE MORE DAY OF ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF SRN CA BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD FROM OFF THE COAST.
FEED OF MOISTURE FROM THE S COUPLED WITH THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT E OF
UPPER LOW IS FOCUSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AM OVER THE
IMPERIAL VALLEY WHERE MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG HAVE ALREADY RESULTED IN
A FEW STRONG CELLS. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT FULL
HEATING TODAY...THE PRESENCE OF 7-8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS E OF COASTAL MTNS THRU THE DAY.
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