SWODY1
SPC AC 131225
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
VALID 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OH VALLEY...
MIDLEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE TRANSLATING
SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH SERN MO AND CNTRL
AR AS OF 12Z WILL CONCURRENTLY PROGRESS SEWD...SERVING AS THE FOCUS
FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. PRIMARY
FACTORS LIMITING A MORE ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ALONG THE FRONT
INCLUDE: 1) MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND RESULTANT
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AND 2) A GENERALLY WEAK
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD AND VERTICAL SHEAR DOWNSTREAM FROM
AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
NONETHELESS...INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RELATIVELY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF. 12Z ILX OBSERVED SOUNDING/ MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG PULSE-TYPE STORMS OR LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CELLS PRIOR TO THE COOLING AND STABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LATER TONIGHT.
..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 10/13/2010
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