SWODY1
SPC AC 211601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NM...WRN TX...AND FAR
SWRN OK...
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING MCS ERN NM/TX BORDER REGION BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE SELY FLOW OF GULF AIR AND LARGE SCALE
DIVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN AZ UPPER LOW. MODEL WORLD HAS HAD
SOME PROBLEM NOT ONLY FORECASTING BUT INITIALIZING FOR THIS MCS.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SRN
PANHANDLE INTO SWRN TX AND EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING IN ADVANCE OF
THE MCS...MLCAPES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AOA 1500 J/KG PRIOR TO
REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPS BY MID AFTERNOON. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE
INITIAL FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SRN TX
PANHANDLE ON THE OUTFLOW OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY THEN SWD NEAR DRY
LINE THRU SWRN TX.
ATTM THE FACTOR FOR NOT ADDING SIG HAIL AND A GREATER TORNADO THREAT
IS THE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER WITH BRN SHEAR INCREASING TO 50KT WITH APPROACHING JET MAX
NOW ACROSS NRN MEX AND POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INSTABILITY THAN NOW
EXPECTED WILL REEVALUATE THE THREAT AT 20Z.
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WAKE OF MORNING
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ACROSS ERN NM AS THE UPPER LOW NOW SRN AZ TRACKS
INTO SWRN NM BY THIS EVENING. AGAIN HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..HALES/BROYLES.. 10/21/2010
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