SWODY2
SPC AC 011635
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE REGIME WILL REMAIN OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH BROAD
UPPER RIDGING DOMINANT OVER THE ROCKIES/WEST EXCEPT FOR A LINGERING
UPPER LOW NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA. COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONSIDERABLY LIMIT TSTM/SEVERE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.
...SOUTHERN CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST STATES...
AS A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW PIVOTS NEAR THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST...AMPLE/ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTMS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN NV...TO THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY. A WARM/MOIST BUT
WELL-MIXED LAYER WILL PROBABLY YIELD SOME STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CA AND/OR THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SUCH A THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LOCALIZED/TOO MARGINAL
FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AS MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OTHERWISE
LIMIT INDIVIDUAL STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE.
...OH VALLEY/LAKE ERIE VICINITY...
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY/LAKE ERIE VICINITY ON SATURDAY IN TANDEM WITH A FAST MOVING
WEAK SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. GIVEN SCANT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT DEPTH
FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS
ARE FOR A LIMITED LIKELIHOOD/SPARSE COVERAGE OF ANY TSTMS.
..GUYER.. 10/01/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment