SWODY2
SPC AC 041707
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT MON OCT 04 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN
U.S....
...SWRN U.S...
WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN
U.S...PARTICULARLY THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF AZ TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW WILL STALL OVER CA WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP-STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NWRN MEXICO TOWARD
THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL HEIGHT
FALLS...IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AS IT EASES ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. PWAT VALUES ARE ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF SRN CA/AZ...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
STRONG HEATING WILL INDUCE SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S. READINGS ABOVE 80F
WITH 60+ DEW POINTS COULD EASILY RENDER SBCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG.
FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE...WILL EVOLVE WITHIN BELT OF STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER NW INTO CNTRL NV...STRONG-ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN EXIT REGION OF SPEED MAX WHERE MUCH
COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL PROVE CONDUCIVE FOR HAIL
GENERATION.
...NEW ENGLAND...
WARM CONVEYOR WILL ROTATE NWWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE PERIOD AS UPPER LOW MIGRATES SLOWLY EWD INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS ZONE OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE/ASCENT SUGGESTS A FEW EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.
..DARROW.. 10/04/2010
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