SWODY3
SPC AC 090656
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF ERN OK
THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
REX BLOCK PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. BEING CUTOFF FROM MAIN
BELT OF POLAR WLYS...THE CNTRL U.S. UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE MONDAY...BUT MAY SHIFT FARTHER SE THROUGH KS/NRN OK IN
RESPONSE TO NRN BRANCH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CNTRL CANADA. VORT MAX
WILL CONTINUE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER LOW ACCOMPANIED BY A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH OK AND NRN/CNTRL TX.
...ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX...
AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH MID 50S TO LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH TX AND OK MONDAY BENEATH PLUME OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC
HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING VORT MAX AND FRONT
AS DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES. BELT OF STRONGER FLOW ROTATING THROUGH
UPPER TROUGH BASE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG
WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.
...OH VALLEY THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AND PORTION OF NERN STATES...
NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PERSIST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AREA SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC BENEATH MODERATELY
STRONG MID-UPPER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD
WITHIN BASE OF SYNOPTIC LOW CIRCULATION. PLUME OF MODERATELY STEEP
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AND DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE GREATER
THAN ON SUNDAY OWING TO STRONGER FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD
ADVANCING VORT MAX. NWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL 30-40 KT VERTICAL SHEAR
ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK
AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 10/09/2010
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