SWOD48
SPC AC 110811
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 AM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4 /THURSDAY/ ...STRONG VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG FRONT STALLED
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE MAY EXIST IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY. WHILE A SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MIGHT EXIST EAST
OF SURFACE LOW ALONG NC COASTAL AREAS...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
BEYOND DAY 4 A REINFORCING SURGE OF CP AIR WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE
FLOW WITH LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE MAY BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH BY DAY 7-8. HOWEVER...SPREADS BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME LARGE BEYOND DAY 6.
..DIAL.. 10/11/2010
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