SWOD48
SPC AC 210843
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER DAKOTAS/SRN SK/SRN MB
DAY-5...BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MREF AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN TO NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REGION SHOULD
BE LIMITED IN WAKE OF SRN-STREAM TROUGH FCST TO MOVE OVER TX/OK
DAY-4/24TH-25TH. MEANWHILE...NRN-STREAM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STG
COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...THEN ON
DAY-5...DECELERATING OVER TX BENEATH STG MID-UPPER WLYS. AFTER EWD
DEPARTURE/WEAKENING OF DAY-4 SHORTWAVE...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD
BE IN PLACE S OF FRONT TO SUPPORT SOME SVR POTENTIAL AMIDST
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...IMPORTANT DETAILS OF
NEXT/UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THIS FRONTAL ZONE
DAY-7/27TH-28TH ARE LOST AMIDST SUBSTANTIAL MODEL VARIATION IN
TIMING/DEPTH OF THAT WAVE. THEREFORE...IT IS TOO SOON TO DELINEATE
ANY AOA-30% SVR RISK AREAS.
..EDWARDS.. 10/21/2010
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