SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012147
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-012315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 PM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...FAR SRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012147Z - 012315Z
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS ACROSS NE NM AND FAR SRN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NE NM AND FAR SRN CO
IN A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE
INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS ARE IN THE 9 TO 10 C/KM RANGE. THIS
COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ALBUQUERQUE WSR-88D
VWP SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH
MID-LEVEL TEMPS ARE VERY WARM...STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD STILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.
..BROYLES.. 10/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37290453 37230550 36850622 35960689 35120674 34740612
34560496 35020392 35820279 36690261 37370333 37290453
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