SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052216
AZZ000-052315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691...
VALID 052216Z - 052315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691
CONTINUES.
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS ACROSS
SRN/CNTRL AZ. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...A THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL
STILL EXIST.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN CA UPPER LOW
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS IS
JUXTAPOSED WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS CENTERED ACROSS CNTRL PIMA
COUNTY INTO ERN PINAL/MARICOPA COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS
CONVECTION OVER CNTRL AZ HAS STABILIZED THE AIR MASS
SOMEWHAT...AMPLE CLEARING IN ITS WAKE HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE GREATEST FOCUS GENERALLY LOCATED FROM THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA SWD/EWD. UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
/40-45 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR/ WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND SMALL
LINE SEGMENTS /PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS ENHANCED/. THE SVR THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN N OF THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA WHERE A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
..ROGERS.. 10/05/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31841272 34141308 35341326 35491208 35441098 35141018
35010971 31341056 31331107 31841272
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