SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091900
SDZ000-092030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SAT OCT 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/S-CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091900Z - 092030Z
THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL SD THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
A CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW /ACCOMPANIED BY 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16
DEG C/ CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER SWRN/S-CNTRL SD...AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HRS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR SKIES ARE LOCATED
IMMEDIATELY E-NE OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW...WHICH IS AIDING IN STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F/...MUCAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE 35
E OF PHP WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE COOL
MIDLEVEL AIR MASS AND MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...STORMS FORMING ACROSS THE AREA WILL POSE SOME THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY ADJACENT TO THE MIDLEVEL
LOW MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
..GARNER.. 10/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
LAT...LON 43090055 43770200 44400264 44910251 45100158 44989987
44379822 43749799 43049881 43090055
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