MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1946

ACUS11 KWNS 111927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111927
TXZ000-112100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111927Z - 112100Z

THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN
TX. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW. IN ADDITION TO THE SVR WEATHER
THREAT...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR.

MESOANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM 40 WSW OF IER TO 30 S OF TYR TO 20 ESE OF DAL. SURFACE AIR MASS
N OF THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY COOL /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
F/ AND STABLE...WHILE S AND W OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S F. STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AOA 7 C PER KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ RESIDE
ABOVE THE WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT WAS ALSO OBSERVED EXTENDING SW FROM
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION...COMBINED WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF 25 KT LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA
INTERSECTING THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WILL AID IN THE INITIATION OF
STRONG TO SVR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STORM DEVELOPMENT
BACKBUILDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THEN MOVES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
POSING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL /WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN PER HR/. IN
ADDITION...THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL ALSO FAVOR
LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..GARNER.. 10/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 30889727 31239809 31969798 32879683 33029577 31889432
31159470 30889727

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