SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112001
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-112130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...ERN OK...FAR SWRN MO...FAR WRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112001Z - 112130Z
STORMS FORMING ACROSS ERN OK AND SERN KS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
THREAT POSSIBLY SHIFTING EWD INTO FAR WRN AR/SWRN MO BY EVENING.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY RECOVERING FROM
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH NERN TX MCS...DUE IN LARGE PART TO STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING...WHICH IS BOOSTING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S F
BENEATH RELATIVELY COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -15 DEG C AT
500 MB/. AS A RESULT...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
ALONG/AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT /LOCATED AT 19Z ALONG A LINE
FROM 50 WSW OF CNU SWD TO 30 W OF MKO/ IS LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT MIDLEVEL
WLY SPEED MAX...WHICH IS YIELDING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
35-40 KT...FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SERN KS/ERN OK AND TOWARD
SWRN MO/WRN AR.
..GARNER.. 10/11/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35359681 35879624 36979624 37819668 38399603 38449512
36069411 34569429 34249560 34399619 34749666 35359681
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