SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212042
TXZ000-NMZ000-212215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1959
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SE/E CNTRL NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212042Z - 212215Z
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT CONFINED OR LIMITED IN
COVERAGE...SO THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS STILL NOT CERTAIN. BUT...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
INITIATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOW SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE THRU 23-00Z...AS ACTIVITY
BEGINS TO PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE PECOS
PLAINS...WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR BENEATH 50 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
..KERR.. 10/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32080459 32740482 33260516 33830526 34440493 34060441
33910372 33280293 32100325 31750346 32080459
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