SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212317
OKZ000-TXZ000-220115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT THU OCT 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...W TX...FAR SW OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 701...
VALID 212317Z - 220115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 701
CONTINUES.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS W TX...WITH
INCREASING SLY LLJ AND COOLING ALOFT. STORMS ACROSS THE TX S PLAINS
NEAR THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE HAVE BECOME MORE LINEAR WITH TIME...ORIENTED
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS. SOME HAIL...BUT
ALSO GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT CONTINUES
SLOWLY EWD.
TO THE S INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION...HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS LESS MERIDIONAL.
THEREFORE...THE GREATEST SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL BE IN THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME STABILIZATION
ESPECIALLY GIVEN MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S
F. THIS WILL ACT TO WEAKEN STORMS WITH TIME...AND IT IS UNCLEAR
WHETHER A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED E OF WW 701. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
..JEWELL.. 10/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 30460186 30470396 35170095 35159880 30460186
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