MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1971

ACUS11 KWNS 231913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231912
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-232045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231912Z - 232045Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN/NRN MO AS STORMS
INITIATE AND MATURE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO WILL ALSO POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT ROTATE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
THE REGION.

SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CELLS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING FROM LINN COUNTY KS
TO VERNON COUNTY MO ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. FURTHER
TO THE NORTH...A FEW CELLS ARE INITIATING IN NW MO NEAR OR JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS AIRMASS IS ALSO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS COULD BE RATHER STRONG AS
THE CELLS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. IN ADDITION...THE KANSAS CITY AND
SPRINGFIELD WSR-88D VWPS GENERALLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE
40 TO 50 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE MORE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BUT THIS THREAT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL A STORM CLUSTER OR MCS
CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37689504 37889403 39159274 39689249 40269275 40749365
40919444 40489514 38979587 38119588 37689504

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