MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1972

ACUS11 KWNS 232009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232009
TXZ000-232215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/NE TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 704...

VALID 232009Z - 232215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 704 CONTINUES.

RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE
NEAR/EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN TEXAS...FOCUSED BENEATH A STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
FIELD SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD...AND NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OZARKS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...BASED WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME ABOVE A
RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...BANDS OF DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE EVIDENT WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE DEEPER COLD POOL NOW SLOWLY APPROACHING THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TEXAS... PARTICULARLY ONE NOW NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METROPLEX. THIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG A 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
AXIS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE ENHANCED IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AS CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER
CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.

DISCRETE CELLS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL TEND TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO
AREAS NEAR/EAST OF THE METROPLEX BETWEEN NOW AND 21-23Z ...AND
PROBABLY WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAKER/ WEAKENING
INHIBITION. AS THIS OCCURS...TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED
WITHIN A WEAK CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BAROCLINIC ZONE.

..KERR.. 10/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 31349735 32119707 32579681 32969607 32529575 31939600
31199646 30469719 31349735

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