WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 704

WWUS20 KWNS 231707
SEL4
SPC WW 231707
OKZ000-TXZ000-240100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 704
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SAT OCT 23 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF PARIS TEXAS
TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 703. WATCH NUMBER 703 WILL NOT BE IN
EFFECT AFTER 1205 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF
MIDLEVEL TROUGH. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
COUPLED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING WILL STILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION INDICATES A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...MEAD

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