SWODY1
SPC AC 020551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT TUE NOV 02 2010
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER TX WILL EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED LOW...CENTERED ALONG THE MIDDLE-UPPER TX COAST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE TX
TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SWRN LA AT THE START OF
DAY 1...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ALONG THE TX COAST TO DEEP S
TX. DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING SSEWD...THE SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT SHOULD EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E/SEWD WITH THE LOW REACHING THE SOUTH
CENTRAL LA COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
...E TX/WRN LA...
AT 12Z TODAY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND E OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM FAR E TX/LA SSWWD ALONG THE TX COAST AND OVER THE
ADJACENT WRN GULF. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING ACROSS E TX/WRN LA AS THIS REGION WILL RESIDE WITHIN THE
EXIT REGION OF A 50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET...WHILE THE TX COAST
ACTIVITY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WEAK INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS AN EARLY
DAY 1 THREAT. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS ESEWD ACROSS SRN LA AND THE NWRN GULF AS
TX TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.
...SOUTH CENTRAL-SERN LA TO FAR SERN MS...
MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL WARM SECTOR WITH SOME SURFACE HEATING AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SHOULD EXIST TODAY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SERN LA. HOWEVER...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY. AS THE SWLY MID-UPPER
LEVEL JET TRANSLATES INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF TO ALONG THE LA/
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND DPVA SHIFTS EWD...MODELS INDICATE A LINE OF
CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL PROGRESS EWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING OVER SRN LA SUGGESTING THE INLAND PORTION OF THE TSTM LINE
MAY CONSIST OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. WEAKER LAPSE RATES SHOULD
LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT...WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING A BRIEF TORNADO
AND/OR STRONGER WIND GUST. HOWEVER...EVEN THESE LATTER TWO SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS SHOULD BE LOW GIVEN WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
INLAND FROM THE COAST.
..PETERS/SMITH.. 11/02/2010
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