SWODY1
SPC AC 040521
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT THU NOV 04 2010
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
THE CAROLINA THROUGH MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WRN GULF
WILL RAPIDLY DEAMPLIFY AS IT IS SWEPT NEWD BY STRONGER FLOW WITHIN
BASE OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SWWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE
SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA AS THE PRIMARY LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NWD
TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND.
...FL...
PLUME OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASCENT IS SPREADING THROUGH
THE ERN GULF AND WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
AND RAIN. LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WITHIN CYCLOGENESIS ZONE LEAVING MUCH WEAKER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. NEVERTHELESS...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
ACCOMPANYING THE WEAKENING SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+
KT BULK SHEAR WITH POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND BOWING
SEGMENTS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS. THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK
FLOW THROUGH 800 MB SHOULD SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
..DIAL/GARNER.. 11/04/2010
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