SWODY1
SPC AC 261927
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CST FRI NOV 26 2010
VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN GA/FL...
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...SRN GA...NRN FL
AND SWD TO WEST CENTRAL FL. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE PRE-COLD FRONT ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE RANGING
FROM 700 J/KG OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/SWRN GA TO 500 J/KG OVER WRN FL.
STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NRN FL/
SRN GA WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AS INDICATED BY TLH
RADAR.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS/OBSERVATIONS...THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE A GENERAL /10 PERCENT/
TSTM AREA. WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE THUS FAR INHIBITED
UPDRAFTS FROM BECOMING DEEP ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST. ECHO TOPS PER REGIONAL RADARS VERIFY THE MIDLEVEL
INVERSION LEVELS WHICH ARE INHIBITING DEEPER CONVECTION FOR
LIGHTNING TO OCCUR.
..PETERS.. 11/26/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST FRI NOV 26 2010/
...SERN CONUS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE NC COASTAL PLAIN SWWD INTO THE
WRN FL PNHDL AS OF 15Z WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF POSITIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER ONTARIO SWWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT IS RELATIVELY WARM AND
MOIST...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY WARMING
INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...12Z OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA
INDICATE THAT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE
POOR...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE DEPTH OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING FORMATION. WHILE A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NRN FL/SRN GA TODAY...
EXPECTED COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A
GENERAL TSTM AREA.
...PACIFIC NW COAST...
POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 133W/48N WILL
CONTINUE ESEWD...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO COLD CORE OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH WHICH
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH 27/12Z.
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