DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041946
SWODY1
SPC AC 041945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT THU NOV 04 2010

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA...

...FL PENINSULA TO COASTAL CAROLINAS...
FEW CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK THINKING. BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST
OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHERN
FL PENINSULA TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL
BOWS/PERHAPS A SUPERCELL...DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE A
THREAT ON A RELATIVELY ISOLATED BASIS.

...OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...
ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE /SUB 10 PERCENT/.

..GUYER.. 11/04/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT THU NOV 04 2010/

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP
AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS FL TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AND
ASSOCIATED 60-80 KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL NOSE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA. ENHANCED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL HELP TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND ENCOURAGE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS...WITH AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG EXPECTED. STRONG EFFECTIVE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN FL PENINSULA TO SLIGHT RISK. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CORES.

...OH/MI...
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OH/LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
AREAL COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT
COVERAGE...THUS HAVE NOT ADDED A GENERAL THUNDER AREA AT THIS TIME.

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