Friday, November 19, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191946
SWODY1
SPC AC 191945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2010

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 11/19/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST FRI NOV 19 2010/

COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUED DEEPENING SWD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
PAC NW. PRIMARY THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE
GIVEN THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY INLAND. HOWEVER WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW A FEW OF THE CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO DEVELOP CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING.
ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL RANGE WWD. WITH
TIME AS THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN A FEW STRIKES COULD OCCUR COASTAL
REGIONS OF NRN CA BY TONIGHT.

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