SWODY1
SPC AC 161247
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF GA AND THE FL
PNHDL AND NRN PENINSULA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COASTAL PLAIN...
...ERN GULF COAST NEWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
DAY ONE PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING SRN BRANCH
OF FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHILE
EJECTING NEWD FROM THE S-CNTRL CONUS TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE TROUGH...VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NNEWD...FORMING A CLOSED CIRCULATION
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM
CURRENTLY OVER TX WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF STATES
BEFORE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.
AT THE SURFACE...CYCLONE OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL WILL UNDERGO
CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING TODAY WHILE DEVELOPING NNEWD THROUGH MIDDLE
TN/CNTRL KY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z WED. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE ACCELERATING FROM THE CNTRL GULF STATES EWD TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
A NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM SWRN
GA/FL PNHDL REGION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED
WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG A 40-50 KT SWLY
LLJ. THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE INLAND FLUX OF HEAT AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF CURRENT STORMS THIS MORNING BEFORE DEVELOPING NWD
AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /REF. 12Z TLH SOUNDING/ AND THE
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING
STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH NRN FL/SRN GA.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE LLJ AND STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N OF THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHICH
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CONFINED TO PARTS OF GA AND NRN FL. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT
FROM PORTIONS OF THE WRN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO NRN FL WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR BUT WEAKER
INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT. GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT
WILL OCCUR AND THE RESULTING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...ONLY LOW
WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED AT THIS JUNCTURE.
TONIGHT...A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK /I.E.
MLCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500-700 J PER KG/...THE INTENSE WIND FIELD
AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR
OF WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
..MEAD/GARNER.. 11/16/2010
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