SWODY1
SPC AC 110052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST WED NOV 10 2010
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED AROUND MEAN WRN CONUS
TROUGHING...ANCHORED BY TWO PRIMARY/STG SHORTWAVES EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE UPPER-AIR DATA...
1. FROM ERN MT ESEWD ACROSS SD...FCST TO CONTINUE EJECTING NNEWD
ACROSS NRN PLAINS TO CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES DURING REMAINDER
PERIOD...AND
2. OVER PORTIONS NV/UT AS OF 00Z...AND FCST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS
4-CORNERS REGION AS POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH. UNCONDITIONAL THUNDER
POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS NONZERO...BUT HAS DIMINISHED
SUCH THAT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE DROPPED.
AT SFC...OCCLUDED FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT
-- WAS ANALYZED AS OF 23Z FROM NWRN MN SSEWD TO CENTRAL IA...WITH
WARM FRONT ESEWD OVER NRN IL AND COLD FRONT SSWWD ACROSS NWRN MO TO
NERN/S-CENTRAL OK. FRONT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY FARTHER SWWD
ACROSS NW TX TO EXTREME SERN NM. WRN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT OVER SRN
HIGH PLAINS SHOULD BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND RETREAT NWD OVERNIGHT AS
WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY
ACROSS MO/OK AS UPPER SUPPORT DEPARTS PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER AWAY
FROM REGION.
...UPPER MIDWEST...
NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS -- WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD ACROSS IA/MN/WI IN ZONE OF MRGL
MOISTURE E OF OCCLUDED FRONT...AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN
FORM OF BOTH MID-UPPER DCVA AND LOW-LEVEL WAA. 00Z MPX RAOB SAMPLED
PART OF THIS REGIME...WITH MUCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG ONCE AN
UNREASONABLY UNSTABLE LAYER WAS ADJUSTED BETWEEN 500-600 MB.
BUOYANCY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME...THOUGH
SPORADIC/ISOLATED LTG CANNOT BE RULE OUT EVEN ACROSS WRN UPPER MI
AND WRN LS/ARROWHEAD REGIONS OVERNIGHT AS STRONGEST PLUME OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PASSES OVERHEAD.
...OK...
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT IN ELEVATED
PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA...HELPING TO STEEPEN LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INTRODUCE DEEPENING LAYER OF CAPE IN FCST SOUNDINGS NEAR
END OF PERIOD. WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MRGL MOISTURE
WILL BE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTORS. MOST PROGS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL
THETAE INCREASING TO LEVELS FAVORING DEEP-ENOUGH BUOYANT LAYER FOR
TSTMS WILL HOLD UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...THOUGH ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT RIGHT AROUND END OF PERIOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DEFINITIVELY. ATTM...POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL TO DRAW
10%/GEN THUNDER LINE.
..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2010
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