SWODY2
SPC AC 141727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SUN NOV 14 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH -- CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BUT
AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY -- IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SEWD ALONG THE WRN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH DIGS/SHIFTS EWD WITH TIME...VERY WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER THE NWRN GULF INVOF THE LA COAST.
WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK ONSHORE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE THREAT CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION THIS PERIOD.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF COAST REGION...WITH SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NWRN GULF. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH VERY MODEST ONSHORE SURFACE-BASED
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN
LA/SRN MS/SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THAT CAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 300 TO 500 J/KG --
LARGELY HINDERING STRONGER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...A COUPLE OF
SUSTAINED/STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR
LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- ESPECIALLY
INVOF THE W-E SURFACE FRONT...AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT...WHICH SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY EWD WITH
TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..GOSS.. 11/14/2010
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