SWODY2
SPC AC 251656
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CST THU NOV 25 2010
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENT CENTRAL STATES MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BRUNT OF IT OVERSPREADING
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE ACROSS ERN CANADA...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENS SOME AS IT TRACKS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO NOVA SCOTIA. A
COLD FRONT TRAILING S/SWWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS TO
FAR SERN LA AND INTO THE WRN GULF AT 12Z FRIDAY WILL PROGRESS
STEADILY EWD DURING DAY 2. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NRN/
MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EAST OF THE CAROLINAS/ GA
COASTS FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE SRN EXTENT INITIALLY OVER
GA/AL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY 12Z SATURDAY.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT FOR THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...OR LACK
THEREOF...ACROSS THE CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED COASTAL/OFFSHORE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ALONG AND BEHIND AN INLAND
ADVANCING FRONT/UPPER TROUGH.
...SOUTHEAST COAST/FL...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WELL SOUTH OF THE POLAR JET...POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT
AND MEAGER PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
TSTM COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD INLAND...AND OTHERWISE PRECLUDE A SEVERE
RISK IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW.
..PETERS.. 11/25/2010
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