MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2043

ACUS11 KWNS 131601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131601
WIZ000-MNZ000-132000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2043
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN MN AND FAR NWRN WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 131601Z - 132000Z

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER NWRN WI AND ECNTRL/NERN MN
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE
LIKELY IN A 30-60 MILE CORRIDOR CENTERED KMSP-KDLH.

OCCLUDING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE NWD FROM NRN IA INTO ECNTRL MN
THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
ALONG THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING NWD ALONG THE UPPER
MS VLY AND ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT KMSP.

EXPECTATION IS FOR PRIMARY DEFORMATION AXIS TO BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES NWD. 12Z NAM CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE MODEST NEGATIVE
EPV WILL EXIST COINCIDENT WITH 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS ROUGHLY
KMSP-KDLH WHERE BANDS OF SNOW WILL TEND TO NARROW AND INTENSIFY
AMIDST BOTH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SYMMETRIC STABILITY.
09Z SREF LENDS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WHERE OVER HALF OF THE
MEMBERS ARE FORECASTING SUSTENANCE OF ONE INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

SNOW BANDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND/OR DISSOLVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM S-N AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
FILL.

..RACY.. 11/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON 45279342 45889317 47049255 47129211 47099162 46589141
46249152 46019181 45649256 45389298 45159325 45279342

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