MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2047

ACUS11 KWNS 161318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161317
FLZ000-GAZ000-161445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 740...

VALID 161317Z - 161445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 740 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z...MAINLY ACROSS ERN PARTS OF WW 740
INCLUDING THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. STRONGER STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE WW BY 15Z...BUT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN
FURTHER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA. UNLESS TRENDS
SUGGEST OTHERWISE...A WW EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 740 IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM SWRN GA SWWD TO TALLAHASSEE TO
NEAR APALACHICOLA MOVING EAST AT AROUND 35 KT. OVERALL TREND HAS
BEEN FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO SOME WEAKENING DUE PRIMARILY TO A
BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS NOT FULLY RECOVERED. THE 12Z RAOB DATA
INDICATE A SURFACE STABLE LAYER. THE MOISTER WARM SECTOR REMAINS
OFFSHORE...AND A RESERVOIR OF DRYER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH 50S F
DEWPOINTS RESIDES OVER THE FL PENINSULA. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT INSUFFICIENT RECOVERY OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO SQUALL LINE PASSAGE. THIS
ALONG WITH TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING ATTENDING INITIAL VORT
MAX TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND AS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF WW 740.

IN THE MEANTIME...LARGE HODOGRAPHS...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND NEAR
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AT LEAST A THREAT
OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

..DIAL.. 11/16/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29678532 30478470 31018393 31108322 30448311 29558373
29678532

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