SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210202
CAZ000-210330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL CA COASTAL REGION
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 210202Z - 210330Z
SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OBSERVED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO SUGGESTS A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF SEVERE THREAT. THREAT REMAINS
QUITE LIMITED HOWEVER...AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
CA AND JUST OFFSHORE...FROM THE SFO BAY REGION SWD. BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS ORGANIZED SLIGHTLY...WHILE
PRE-FRONTAL CELLULAR CONVECTION ALSO HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...WITH STRONGER CELLS SHOWING OCCASIONAL WEAK
ROTATION. THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...AS SOME COOLING AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS
CENTRAL CA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEWD MOTION OF THE MAIN UPPER
LOW.
WITH BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS...ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT INTENSITY BEARS
WATCHING. ATTM HOWEVER...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN
INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE...BUT A LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUST OR
EVEN A VERY BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..GOSS.. 11/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...
LAT...LON 36632188 36962238 37502255 38632165 38082089 37332086
36832116 36632188
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