SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221650
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-221815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL...ERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221650Z - 221815Z
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO...ERN IA AND
WRN IL AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW AND CNTRL/NE MO IN
AN AREA OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. MLCAPE VALUES ARE NOW ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO
750 J/KG RANGE FROM NEAR JOPLIN MO NNEWD TO AROUND DAVENPORT IA.
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS THIS AFTERNOON
FOCUSING A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/NE MO...ERN IA AND WRN IL. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWPS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
CALCULATED AT 50 TO 60 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 50 TO 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. AS STORMS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
..BROYLES.. 11/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 41598876 38759150 37769272 37429332 37449367 37539402
37909433 38649427 40459287 42339090 41598876
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